OECD国家碳排放达峰过程及对我国的借鉴意义*
作者：唐杰 温照傑 王东 孙静宇 2022-04-27 15:52 新传播 【字号：大 中 小】
本文对经济增长与碳排放关系相关研究进行了梳理，当前碳排放达峰理论分析基础主要包括Kaya恒等式、环境库兹涅茨曲线及以诺德豪斯为代表的资源最优配置动态均衡方法等，相关分解方法主要分为基于指标的分解法、自下而上方法和基于系统优化的模拟等。本文归纳已有碳排放达峰的相关研究，总结相关研究的实证结论，认为碳排放水平与经济增长方式密切相关，决定于人均收入和城市化水平但并非简单的线性关系；此外，经过研究表明，能源产出效率提高与产业结构升级互动，有为政府是解决市场机制失灵的关键，碳排放达峰和碳中和目标的实现是技术创新和体制创新的结果。文章进一步对OECD碳排放达峰过程进行了实证分析，量化了工业化、城市化、产业技术和体制机制创新在碳排放达峰过程中的作用。结果显示，在技术条件不变的前提下，人口增长带动碳排放总量增长，人均GDP带动资源消耗上升的收入效应递减，城市化与碳排放之间存在显著的倒U关系，能源强度的下降能够有效降低碳排放总量和人均碳排放，其中制造业占比与碳排放的关系不确定。碳排放达峰与碳中和不仅是气候变化问题，而且是与产业升级、技术创新等密切相关的经济高质量发展问题，为完成这一历史性的转换，完善的市场导向的创新激励与合理有效的政府干预是不可或缺的。
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